I see the popular vote is for the horror/thriller; the heads are way ahead. I'm sure this is the kind of book that people will take off the shelves in the shops; the blockbuster; the one with Bruce Willis in the lead role, dripping with so much suspense you can see the beads of sweat collecting in his designer stubble.

(BTW, if you go with that, begin with the girl in the wheelchair already, not the earlier tragedy that put her there. That isn't the story. The guy with the axe who makes Hannibal Lecter look like Norman Wisdom is the story.)

But wait!!!

All the above applies to what seems like a best-seller irrespective of who writes it - or subject to Stephen King or someone like that, who writes them on autopilot, knocking out yet another one.

The first one is much more like literary fiction, and I suppose I have just nailed its coffin by calling it that. Literary fiction is far less sexy, especially among the 12-year-olds, but still has a niche market. You probably stand as much chance of emerging as a big fish in a small pond with that one, as out-Stephen Kinging everybody else with the other one.

The critical factor, and the only one that matters IMHO, is that YOU are writing the story.

This is two months of YOUR life you'll never have back (the 'free-writing' and editing months) and probably more after that. And what's more, readers can sense how much of herself an author has invested in a story. The worst thing you can do is write a story TO sell, because, by definition, it won't, because that will be transparent.

The question I would have you ask yourself, is this: which protagonist from either story breaks your heart the most? Which one do you cry for the longest? THAT is the story you must write